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Keith Neumeyer: the silver market lacks integrity

The Hera Research Newsletter (HRN) is pleased to present an incredibly powerful interview with Keith Neumeyer, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX:FR / NYSE:AG).  Mr. Neumeyer began his career at the Vancouver Stock Exchange and worked in the investment community for 26 years beginning his career in a series of Canadian national brokerage firms including McLeod Young Weir (now Scotia McLeod), then Richardson Greenshields and then Walwyn Stogell McCuthchen (which became Midland Walwyn).

Mr. Neumeyer moved on to work with several publically traded companies in the natural resource and high technology sectors. His roles have included senior management positions and directorships in the areas of finance, business development, strategic planning and corporate restructuring.  Mr. Neumeyer, who has listed a number of companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange, has extensive experience dealing with financial, regulatory, legal and accounting issues.

Hera Research Newsletter (HRN): Thank you for joining us today. Let’s begin by talking about silver supply and demand.

Keith Neumeyer: Silver mine production was around 736 million ounces in 2010. Demand was around 1 billion ounces. Scrap silver recycling and some government sales filled the gap. We’re at historic lows in terms of above ground silver. Eric Sprott recently said there are 1 billion ounces of triple nine silver left aboveground. Unlike gold, silver gets used. We’re at historic highs in supply when it comes to gold, but the exact opposite is true for silver.

HRN: Is there a deficit in terms of mine supply?

Keith Neumeyer: We’ve had a supply deficit for the past 13 years. 2009 was the first year we created equilibrium. We only went into a surplus in 2010, in terms of industrial and jewelry fabrication demand. The surplus mine supply was purchased by investors, obviously. A lot of mining companies are showing lower production because a lot of silver comes from base metals and, with lower base metals prices, it’s becoming more difficult. I don’t see any major supply drivers for silver in the next several years.

HRN: Do you expect more scrap silver to enter the market?

Keith Neumeyer: That’s what happened in 2009 when gold rallied over $1,200 and then corrected to below $1,100. It was primarily caused by scrap gold entering the market. I believe the same thing was happening for silver. We’ll see that again as the metals make new highs. It’s the same as a stock. You replace part of the shareholder base at different levels.

HRN: Are you optimistic about future demand?

Keith Neumeyer: Yes, I’ve been optimistic about silver since 2002 because silver is a strategic metal.  I think it’s more important than gold.

HRN: Are there new applications that could increase demand?

Keith Neumeyer: We’re seeing all kinds of new applications. A recent report by Barclays forecast that 120 million ounces of silver will be used for solar power generation in 2012 versus 40 million ounces in 2009. The battery industry is growing as well.  Zinc-silver batteries provide very stable capacity—their output doesn’t degrade like lithium batteries—and they deliver 40% more energy compared to nickel metal-hydride batteries. They’re safer than water-based chemical batteries because they don’t heat up or explode.  They’re also mercury free and 95% recyclable. Lithium-ion batteries in cell phones, for example, need to be replaced after 12 to 18 months.  I’m very optimistic about battery technology. There are also robotics and other applications on the horizon.

HRN: What’s your long term price target for silver?

Keith Neumeyer: Silver will reach a value based on its natural ratio of 15:1 with gold. I expect to see at least $2,000 gold and most likely $3,000 in the next 3 to 5 years, so silver will be between $130 and $200.  It’s a big number from where we are today but that’s where I think we’re headed.  We’re dealing with a market that needs to be corrected.

HRN: Isn’t the price of silver set by supply and demand?

Keith Neumeyer: I don’t think supply and demand has anything to do with the price, unfortunately. The world we live in today is a paper environment where silver is priced by financial circumstances.  Banks, traders and investors around the world move markets to where they want them to be. Governments and commercials—big banks like HSBC and JP Morgan—all have a piece of the action. They alternately work together or sometimes against each other. All these forces price the metal.  That’s one reason we’re seeing the volatility that we’re seeing today.

HRN: How can supply and demand be irrelevant?

Keith Neumeyer: In short term trading, the price is financially driven. Eventually, markets do correct themselves over time. In the long run, supply and demand does have influence. That’s why the price will ultimately return to its natural ratio of 15:1.

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Posted by on Nov 25 2011. Filed under Silver Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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