Deutsche Bank cut 2013 silver price outlook by 16.5 percent to $31 an ounce
Deutsche Bank on Tuesday cut its 2013 gold price forecast, saying returns from the metal may be on course for their worst annual performance since 2000.
“The forces which have propelled gold returns higher over the past decade, namely a weakening U.S. dollar, falling real interest rates and a rising U.S. equity risk premium have all moved into reverse since the end of last year,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note to clients.
The bank cut its 2013 gold price forecast by 12 percent to $1,637 an ounce and lowered its silver priceoutlook for the year by 16.5 percent to $31 an ounce.
Deutsche Bank said it expected platinum group metals to outperform gold due to tight supplies and strong demand from automakers.
Brent prices are likely to remain about the same as last year, the bank said, but it raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil, or West Texas Intermediate, by 4.2 percent to $100.34 a barrel.
“We see pipeline and railroad expansion in the U.S. as making a meaningful impact on clearing U.S. Midwest crude oil inventory,” the analysts said.
The analysts also expressed optimism that the U.S. economic recovery would not stall in 2013 and therefore would enable WTI to outperform Brent.
The bank cut its 2013 price forecasts for copper by 3.2 percent to $7,865 a tonne and for aluminum by 4.2 percent to $2,035 a tonne.
Noting the low trading prices for base metals, the analysts said global consumption growth was likely to remain subdued.
However, these metals will eventually benefit from an acceleration in global growth, specifically in China.
Deutsche Bank cut its 2013 price forecasts for wheat by 22.7 percent to $6.70 a bushel, for corn by 17.9 percent to $6.25 and for soybeans by 13.9 percent to $13.20.
“We see the outlook for agricultural returns deteriorating after the summer weather risk premium abates and inventories are replenished in a number of markets and as certain sources of demand, such as the U.S. ethanol sector, continue to cool,” analysts said.
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